Supporting and nurturing the growth of a more resilient Toronto
Our Predicament
Our lifestyles currently depend on massive amounts of energy,
most of it from coal, oil and natural gas. This
dependency permeates all aspects of our lives; electricity, heat
and transportation but also food, plastics, chemicals, clothing,
fertilizer, pesticides, roads, medicine and cheap foreign
goods.
Historically, rising energy costs correlate with economic recession. Sudden and lasting energy price increases will raise the spectre of unemployment, depression, the decline of globalization, and collapse of a financial system built on the notion of perpetual growth.
The goal of Transition is to increase our resilience to these risks. If we collectively plan and act early enough, there's every likelihood that we can create a way of living that's significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with our environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today. If not, we remain vulnerable to destructive shocks and chaotic, knee-jerk reactions.
Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has declared that evidence for human-influenced climate change is now “unequivocal”. Lack of meaningful action in the past twenty years means that we are now committed to a significant level of warming and associated changes. An opportunity for prevention has been lost.
Worryingly, there is now growing physical evidence of accelerating positive feedback loops in the arctic, including stunning loss of sea ice and increased methane release due to thawing permafrost. The danger is that we may unknowingly be crossing a threshold leading to runaway releases of greenhouse gases, which may catapult us to catastrophic levels of warming.
Expected effects of global warming include water shortages, loss of farmland, flooding of coastal cities and deltas, more severe weather events, massive species loss, desertification, acidification of oceans, the loss of coral reefs and collapse of fisheries. Implied effects on humanity are famine, resource conflicts, mass migrations, increased spread of infectious diseases, political turmoil and failed states.
Oil Depletion / Peak Oil
Globally, our discovery of new oil fields peaked in the 1960’s and has not kept up with consumption since the early 80’s. We now produce six barrels of oil for every one we discover; we have been relying on older fields to sustain production, and many of these are now depleted and in decline. New oil is not only harder to find, but also much more difficult and energy intensive to produce.
The terminology of “Peak Oil” is the contribution of American Geoscientist M. King Hubbert, who, in 1956, correctly forecast the peak of US domestic oil production in 1970. Peak oil is approximately the midpoint and all-time maximum level of global oil production. The problem is what follows the peak; the gap between demand and production may widen quickly following the peak, leading to oil price spikes and economic shocks.
We have no ready replacement for oil, especially as a transportation fuel. Oil is easy to handle and incredibly energy dense; if you’ve ever had to push your car you have some idea. There’s just no realistic, comparable alternative waiting in the wings.
Taken together, Climate Change and Peak Oil make a nearly airtight argument. We should reduce our dependency on fossil fuels for the sake of future generations and the rest of the biosphere; but even if we choose not to do so because of the costs involved, the most important of those fossil fuels will soon become more scarce and expensive anyway, so complacency is simply not an option. (Richard Heinberg, author)
Following Peak Oil, we will likely find ourselves eating seasonal local foods, using locally manufactured goods and vacationing closer to home.
Historically, rising energy costs correlate with economic recession. Sudden and lasting energy price increases will raise the spectre of unemployment, depression, the decline of globalization, and collapse of a financial system built on the notion of perpetual growth.
The goal of Transition is to increase our resilience to these risks. If we collectively plan and act early enough, there's every likelihood that we can create a way of living that's significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with our environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today. If not, we remain vulnerable to destructive shocks and chaotic, knee-jerk reactions.
Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has declared that evidence for human-influenced climate change is now “unequivocal”. Lack of meaningful action in the past twenty years means that we are now committed to a significant level of warming and associated changes. An opportunity for prevention has been lost.
Worryingly, there is now growing physical evidence of accelerating positive feedback loops in the arctic, including stunning loss of sea ice and increased methane release due to thawing permafrost. The danger is that we may unknowingly be crossing a threshold leading to runaway releases of greenhouse gases, which may catapult us to catastrophic levels of warming.
Expected effects of global warming include water shortages, loss of farmland, flooding of coastal cities and deltas, more severe weather events, massive species loss, desertification, acidification of oceans, the loss of coral reefs and collapse of fisheries. Implied effects on humanity are famine, resource conflicts, mass migrations, increased spread of infectious diseases, political turmoil and failed states.
Oil Depletion / Peak Oil
Globally, our discovery of new oil fields peaked in the 1960’s and has not kept up with consumption since the early 80’s. We now produce six barrels of oil for every one we discover; we have been relying on older fields to sustain production, and many of these are now depleted and in decline. New oil is not only harder to find, but also much more difficult and energy intensive to produce.
The terminology of “Peak Oil” is the contribution of American Geoscientist M. King Hubbert, who, in 1956, correctly forecast the peak of US domestic oil production in 1970. Peak oil is approximately the midpoint and all-time maximum level of global oil production. The problem is what follows the peak; the gap between demand and production may widen quickly following the peak, leading to oil price spikes and economic shocks.
We have no ready replacement for oil, especially as a transportation fuel. Oil is easy to handle and incredibly energy dense; if you’ve ever had to push your car you have some idea. There’s just no realistic, comparable alternative waiting in the wings.
Taken together, Climate Change and Peak Oil make a nearly airtight argument. We should reduce our dependency on fossil fuels for the sake of future generations and the rest of the biosphere; but even if we choose not to do so because of the costs involved, the most important of those fossil fuels will soon become more scarce and expensive anyway, so complacency is simply not an option. (Richard Heinberg, author)
Following Peak Oil, we will likely find ourselves eating seasonal local foods, using locally manufactured goods and vacationing closer to home.
- Climate change makes carbon reduction essential
- Peak oil makes it inevitable
- Transition initiatives make it feasible, viable and FUN!
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© 2013 Created by Andrew James Knox.
